Austria vs. Tunisia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Austria and Tunisia will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Monday, 1 June 2026. The match is scheduled for the afternoon window during a fixture congestion period when national teams prepare for the 2026 World Cup in North America. The settlement window closes at 18:45 UTC, approximately 90 minutes after the expected kick-off, allowing for full-time result confirmation.

The current crowd probability of 100% YES suggests near-certain expectation that the match will occur as scheduled. Historical precedent shows that friendly internationals at this stage of the calendar rarely face cancellation; UEFA and FIFA fixture lists remain stable once published, particularly for matches between confederations (Austria via UEFA, Tunisia via CAF). Comparable June friendlies in 2022 and 2024 proceeded without disruption despite injury concerns and squad rotation. The only material risk factors—severe weather, diplomatic incident, or unexpected pandemic-level disruption—carry negligible probability given current conditions.

Traders using conditional order logic should monitor official team news releases from the Austrian Football Association and Tunisian Football Federation through 31 May. Squad announcements typically arrive 10–14 days before friendlies, creating minor volatility if either nation withdraws due to injury clusters or administrative changes. Venue confirmation and pitch condition reports from the host stadium (location unspecified in available fixture data) should be tracked via official UEFA communications. For algorithmic traders, this market exhibits low volatility and high settlement certainty, making it suitable for baseline calibration rather than alpha generation.

Methodology

We track Austria vs. Tunisia on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.