United States vs. Senegal

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States men's national football team will face Senegal in a FIFA International Friendly on 31 May 2026. The match forms part of the pre-tournament preparation window ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted jointly by the US, Mexico, and Canada. Friendly fixtures at this stage typically serve as final squad evaluation and tactical rehearsal for competing nations, with both teams likely to field near-full-strength lineups.

The current 100% YES probability reflects the fixture's confirmed status on both federations' official calendars, with venue and kickoff time locked. Historical precedent shows that friendly matches between established international sides rarely face cancellation once formally scheduled within six months of event date. The US has won 4 of its last 6 meetings against Senegal across all competitions since 2015, though Senegal's qualification for the 2022 World Cup knockout stages demonstrated improved competitive standing. Comparable pre-World Cup friendlies in 2022 and 2018 cycles proceeded as scheduled absent extraordinary circumstances.

Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements from both federations, typically released 10–14 days before international windows. Injury updates to key players—particularly US attacking personnel and Senegal's midfield depth—carry material weight for match-day team selection. Fixture rescheduling risk remains minimal given the 2026 World Cup's fixed tournament dates and both nations' established preparation timelines. Programmatic approaches should flag any official statements from US Soccer or the Senegalese Football Federation regarding fixture status changes, though such announcements remain statistically rare at this proximity to event settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.