Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The 6% probability assigned to this specific outcome suggests traders view it as a low-likelihood scoreline, though the market structure requires specification of which exact result qualifies as YES.

Historical precedent for exact-score markets in World Cup fixtures shows that outcomes with lower implied probabilities typically reflect either extreme scorelines (heavy defeats) or unusual draws. Scotland's recent competitive record includes a 2–0 loss to Spain (2022) and a 3–2 defeat to Ukraine (2021), whilst Haiti's World Cup qualification campaign has been considerably weaker, with limited recent fixtures against top-tier opposition. Comparable exact-score markets in group-stage matches have seen the most probable outcomes cluster around 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 results, with probabilities above 8–12% each. The 6% figure here suggests either a specific scoreline with moderate rarity value or one reflecting a substantial performance gap.

Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements and injury reports through May 2026, particularly for Scotland's key attacking players. Fixture congestion in the preceding days could affect team rotation decisions. The settlement window closes at 01:00 UTC on 14 June, allowing approximately four hours post-match for final confirmation. Programmatically, this market's resolution depends on official FIFA match records; conditional orders tied to related group-stage results (Scotland vs. other opponents, Haiti's other fixtures) may provide useful hedging frameworks for portfolio management.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.