Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Cleveland Guardians on 13 June at 4:10PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The crowd-implied probability of 56% for a Tigers victory reflects moderate confidence in Detroit, though the settlement window extends to 20 June, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling disruptions occur.

Historical performance between these divisional rivals provides context for calibrating the current odds. Over the past three seasons, the Tigers have held a slight edge in head-to-head matchups, winning approximately 52% of games against Cleveland. However, the Guardians' 2023–2024 roster improvements and stronger pitching depth have narrowed this gap considerably. Recent season records show both teams competing within the AL Central, with performance variance tied closely to injury status and bullpen availability. For traders building conditional orders, the 56% probability sits near the midpoint where small shifts in roster news carry outsized impact on fair value.

Monitoring pitcher assignments and injury reports through to game time remains critical for programmatic traders. The Tigers' recent form in June has been inconsistent, whilst Cleveland's road performance this season has tracked slightly above their home splits. MLB official roster updates, typically released 24 hours pre-game, frequently trigger repricing in markets where starting pitcher quality differs materially between teams. Weather forecasts for Detroit should be checked against historical June precipitation patterns, as rain delays or cancellations would trigger the market's postponement clause rather than immediate settlement.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.