Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros defeated the Detroit Tigers 2–1 in their MLB game on 25 June 2026, a result that now anchors the 100% YES probability for the "Houston Astros" prediction market. Programmatic traders would treat this as a settled event, bypassing conditional orders or copy-trading bots that rely on live uncertainty, since the outcome is already confirmed by official final statistics [3].

Historically, markets with 100% implied probability following a completed game resolve instantly, mirroring past cases where sports results were verified before settlement windows closed. In comparable MLB scenarios, such as the 2024 Yankees–Red Sox game, markets with full certainty resolved within minutes of the final score being logged, avoiding the 50–50 tie clause entirely [3]. Traders evaluating tooling should note that bots designed for live odds become redundant once the result is fixed, as no further price discovery occurs.

Key catalysts for similar future markets include pitcher injury announcements, lineup changes, and weather delays, which can shift probabilities before games begin. For instance, recent reports from Covers.com highlighted that the Astros were favoured at -105 moneyline, while the Tigers held -115, with the over 9.0 runs being the best bet [1]. Traders should monitor official MLB schedules and real-time injury feeds via APIs to adjust conditional orders pre-game, as these dependencies directly influence crowd-implied probabilities before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.