Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers faced off in a Major League Baseball game on 26 June at Comerica Park in Detroit, with the Astros securing a 2-1 victory. This result resolves the prediction market to "Houston Astros," confirming the team-implied 0% probability for a Tigers win was accurate.

Historically, MLB games where one team carries a 0% crowd-implied win probability for the opponent often reflect a stark disparity in recent form or pitching strength, as seen when the Astros, sitting at 40-43, defeated the Tigers, who were 34-47, in a low-scoring contest. In comparable cases, such as the 2024 matchup where the Astros won 5-1 against a struggling Tigers lineup, the underdog’s failure to score was the primary catalyst for the market resolution, aligning with the numberFire prediction that gave the Tigers only a 51.9% win chance despite the odds favouring the Astros [1].

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor starting pitcher lineups and injury reports released 24 hours before game time, as these dependencies heavily influence conditional order execution. A recent analysis from FanDuel highlighted the over/under total of 9 as a key metric, noting that games with totals below 8.5 often see the stronger pitching team dominate, which was evident when the Astros held the Tigers to one run [1]. Additionally, conditional orders tied to the first-inning score can be triggered by early pitching performances, a strategy that proved effective when the Astros’ starter limited the Tigers to zero runs in the opening frame.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.