New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB contest pits the New York Yankees, boasting a 47-31 record this season, against the Detroit Tigers, who sit at 34-45[1]. With the crowd-implied probability favouring the Yankees at 60% YES, the market reflects a significant disparity in team performance that aligns with historical trends where superior win-loss records consistently drive settlement outcomes in single-game baseball markets[2]. Programmatically, a power-user would model this by comparing the Yankees' 25-16 away record against the Tigers' defensive vulnerabilities, noting that similar mismatches in June 2025 resulted in Yankees victories by an average margin of 2.4 runs, framing the current 60% probability as a rational baseline rather than an overreaction[3].

Traders must monitor the starting lineups released shortly before the 6:40PM ET gate time, as the absence of key Yankees hitters could shift the probability significantly[4]. Recent data shows Chisholm's two-run home run in Tuesday's 4-3 win over Detroit highlights the Tigers' ability to score in bursts, yet their overall season stats suggest inconsistency[6]. A conditional order strategy would hinge on the moneyline movement; with the Yankees currently favoured at -136 and the Tigers at +113, any late news regarding pitcher fatigue or weather delays at the venue would trigger an immediate re-evaluation of the 60% threshold[2]. The settlement window ending 2026-07-01 ensures that postponed games remain open, requiring bots to track the official final statistics for resolution rather than relying on pre-game odds[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.