Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 2-1 in their Major League Baseball game on 26 June at Citi Field, with Zack Wheeler pitching the Phillies to victory after a spectacular catch by Derek Hill robbed Juan Soto of a two-run homer[4][7]. This result confirms the 100% YES crowd-implied probability for the Phillies winning the game, as the final score stands definitively at 2-1[1][2].

Historically, MLB markets with 100% implied probability before game completion have resolved correctly when the favoured team wins outright, as seen in this case where the Phillies secured the win without a tie or cancellation[1][4]. Comparable cases from the 2025 season show that when a team is heavily favoured at -163 odds and wins, prediction markets resolve cleanly to that outcome, mirroring the current resolution where the Phillies are the confirmed winner[1].

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor official MLB final statistics for confirmation, as the primary resolution source is the recognised final event data[4]. Recent news highlights the impact of managerial decisions and defensive plays, such as the fired Mets manager and Hill’s catch, which directly influenced the outcome[4]. No further announcements are needed as the game has concluded, and the settlement window ending 2026-07-03 will process the confirmed Phillies win automatically[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.