Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians, which took place on Friday, 26 June at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Mariners secured a 3–1 victory, with Colt Emerson homering and J.P. Crawford singling the go-ahead run in the seventh inning, confirming the outcome that the prediction market now reflects as a 100% YES resolution for the Mariners[1][2].

Historically, markets that lock at 100% after a game’s completion are not speculative bets but post-event confirmations, similar to how conditional orders in trading apps execute only once a price threshold is breached and verified. In this case, the 100% probability is not a forecast but a mathematical certainty derived from the official final statistics, mirroring how copy-trading bots resolve positions once the underlying asset’s result is indisputable[1]. Programmatic traders would treat this as a settled utility rather than an open position, using the resolution data to validate their algorithmic back-testing against actual game outcomes.

Traders should monitor the official MLB final statistics page for any rare post-game adjustments, though such changes are exceptionally uncommon in regular-season games. The primary catalyst is the game’s completion status; since the match has already concluded, no further announcements or schedule dependencies apply. Recent coverage from USA Today confirms the first pitch time and venue, reinforcing that the event is fully resolved and the market’s settlement window is now a formality[8]. For power-users evaluating tooling, this market exemplifies a clean, post-resolution data point ideal for testing conditional order logic or verifying bot accuracy against confirmed sports results.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.