North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the North American Regional Qualifier for The International 2026, a single-slot Dota 2 tournament running from 24 to 27 June 2026, where the winner secures the only group-stage berth for the region[2]. With the current crowd-implied probability at 0% for any specific team to qualify, the market reflects the extreme uncertainty of an open field where no participant has yet demonstrated dominance in the preceding open qualifiers[1]. Historically, similar regional qualifiers in Dota 2 have seen volatile outcomes where lower-ranked teams surge through open brackets to upset established contenders, making early probability assignments notoriously unreliable until the final matches are played[3]. Programmatic traders often model these events using conditional orders that activate only after the first round of matches, avoiding the noise of pre-tournament speculation where liquidity is thin and price discovery is skewed.

Key catalysts for traders include the live match results from the qualifier itself, the official announcement of the final group-stage participant list, and the confirmation that the tournament has not been cancelled or postponed[6]. A critical dependency is the publication of the official group-stage list before 15 August 2026, as failure to publish this triggers a resolution to "Other" regardless of the qualifier outcome[2]. Recent news confirms the qualifiers are kicking off within hours, with the full tournament field to be decided once the event wraps on 28 June[5]. Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor the official Liquipedia and Dotabuff feeds for real-time bracket updates, setting up automated alerts for the winner announcement to execute conditional orders before the market resolves[4]. The absence of a clear favourite means the market will likely remain dormant until the final match concludes, at which point liquidity will surge based on the confirmed winner.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.