UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Priscila Cachoeira, a Brazilian bantamweight with 13 professional mixed martial arts bouts, faces American competitor Chelsea Chandler in a preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on 6 June 2026. The fight carries a settlement window extending to 3 June 2026 at 23:59 UTC, with resolution contingent on official UFC declaration. Any outcome other than a decisive winner—including draw, technical draw, no contest, or cancellation beyond 20 June—triggers a 50-50 split.

The 0% implied probability reflects either incomplete market liquidity or genuine uncertainty about fight confirmation. Historical precedent suggests preliminary bouts on UFC Fight Night cards experience cancellation rates between 8–12%, typically due to injury or weight-miss complications announced 48–72 hours before event time. Cachoeira's record includes three UFC appearances since 2021, whilst Chandler's competitive history remains less documented in major databases, creating asymmetric information for traders attempting to model fight likelihood versus outcome likelihood.

Programmatic traders should monitor UFC official announcements and fighter social media for injury disclosures or weight-cut complications, which typically surface mid-week before Saturday events. The settlement window's tight closure (48 hours post-event) requires automated feeds from UFC.com or official scorecards; manual resolution verification introduces execution risk for conditional orders. Traders building bot logic should distinguish between "fight occurs and Cachoeira wins" versus "fight occurs at all," as the 50-50 clause creates distinct probability trees that standard moneyline models may conflate.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.