Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May, the Philadelphia Phillies face the Los Angeles Dodgers in a regular-season MLB matchup at 4:10 PM ET. The current 4% implied probability for a Phillies victory reflects the Dodgers' stronger standing in the National League West and recent head-to-head performance. For traders building conditional logic around this market, the settlement window extends to 7 June 2026, allowing time for postponements or rescheduling without early closure.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Dodgers have maintained a marginal edge in recent seasons, though the Phillies' roster improvements have narrowed the gap considerably. The 4% probability sits notably below the Phillies' typical win likelihood in neutral contexts, suggesting the market is pricing in specific disadvantages—likely roster availability, pitching matchup dynamics, or venue factors. Comparable markets for underdog teams in similar circumstances have occasionally resolved YES when injury reports or late-inning developments shift conditions unexpectedly.

Traders monitoring this market should track roster announcements through 30 May, particularly starting pitcher confirmation and any last-minute injury disclosures from either side. Weather conditions at the venue and bullpen availability often shift probabilities in the final 24 hours before first pitch. For programmatic approaches, setting alerts on official MLB injury reports and team social media channels provides the most reliable data feed; the settlement mechanism's 50-50 tie provision means postponement scenarios require separate handling in conditional order logic.

Methodology

We track Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.