Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The NFL trade market operates within a compressed calendar. Most player movement occurs during the offseason (February–April) and the trade deadline (late October), with occasional mid-season deals. A 3% probability reflects the rarity of significant trades occurring between now and July 2026, a period spanning the 2025 offseason and into the following season's early months. Trades involving named players typically require mutual agreement between franchises, salary cap alignment, and draft compensation negotiations—factors that take weeks to materialise.

Historical precedent shows that trades cluster around specific windows rather than distributing evenly across months. The 2024 offseason saw notable moves (Saquon Barkley to Philadelphia, Davante Adams to Las Vegas), but these were negotiated during the designated free agency period. Mid-season trades are substantially less common and usually involve underperforming players or teams making playoff pushes. A trader monitoring this market should track roster composition changes, injury reports, and coaching staff decisions at individual franchises, as these typically precede trade activity.

For programmatic evaluation, integrate NFL transaction feeds and team salary cap trackers into conditional order logic. Monitor beat reporters covering specific teams—ESPN's Adam Schefter and NFL Network provide real-time trade announcements. The settlement source relies on official NFL records, so confirmation through league channels is definitive. Given the 18-month window and the concentrated nature of trade activity, traders should weight offseason periods (February–April 2025 and 2026) more heavily than summer months when rosters stabilise.

Methodology

We track Which NFL players will be traded? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.