Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phoenix Mercury face the Dallas Wings on 11 June at 9:00PM ET in a regular-season WNBA matchup. Settlement occurs at 01:00 UTC on 12 June, with the market resolving to whichever team records the higher final score, including any overtime periods. Postponement keeps the market open until completion; cancellation without rescheduling triggers a 50-50 split.

The 0% implied probability for Phoenix suggests either a data lag or extreme confidence in Dallas. Historically, WNBA season games rarely see such lopsided pricing unless one roster faces documented absences. The Mercury have cycled through competitive and rebuilding phases; the Wings have shown volatility in recent seasons. Comparable matchups between these franchises typically trade within 40-60% ranges unless injury reports or playoff implications shift expectations sharply. Check whether this reflects genuine roster status or reflects a thin liquidity pool that hasn't yet absorbed updated information.

Traders automating conditional orders should monitor official WNBA injury reports through 10 June, particularly for Phoenix's key rotation players. Dallas's recent form—win-loss record and point differential in their last five games—provides programmatic input for recalibrating edge. The settlement window's tight closure (01:00 UTC) means live-score feeds must be reliable; any overtime dispute could delay resolution. Scheduled games rarely shift at this stage, but weather or venue issues occasionally trigger postponements. Integrating real-time roster data feeds and monitoring WNBA official communications will flag material changes before tip-off.

Methodology

We track Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.