Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-nautical-mile waterway between Iran and Oman, remains one of the world's most strategically monitored chokepoints. Roughly one-third of seaborne traded oil passes through it annually. Warship transits by non-regional powers—particularly the United States Navy and allied navies—occur regularly as freedom-of-navigation operations, though their frequency and political salience fluctuate with regional tensions. The market's 6% implied probability reflects a narrow reading: either the question specifies particular countries with low historical transit rates, or the settlement criteria demand explicit confirmation rather than routine operational activity.

Historical precedent matters here. The US Navy conducts regular carrier strike group passages and destroyer transits without announcement; the Royal Navy has similarly maintained periodic presence. Between 2019 and 2023, heightened tensions around Iranian seizures of commercial vessels and drone attacks on shipping saw increased multinational naval activity, yet formal acknowledgement often lagged weeks. Traders should model whether the market's country list includes routine operators (low surprise value) or nations with sporadic or politically sensitive transit patterns (higher conditional probability).

Catalysts to monitor include Iranian military exercises, which often precede or coincide with international naval movements; US Central Command announcements regarding carrier deployments; and any escalation in regional incidents affecting shipping. Recent reporting from Reuters and USNI News tracks these movements with operational detail. For programmatic approaches, integrating maritime tracking APIs alongside official military press releases and regional news feeds provides the most reliable signal. Settlement hinges on credible confirmation—routine transits may occur without formal announcement, creating ambiguity in the resolution window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.