Highest temperature in Beijing on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability for extreme heat as statistically sound. June in Beijing typically sees daytime averages near 30°C, with highs usually ranging between 32°C and 34°C under partly cloudy skies[3][7]. Recent prediction markets for late June in Beijing, such as those for 25 and 26 June, assigned 100% probability to outcomes of 32°C and 34°C respectively, confirming that temperatures rarely breach the upper thresholds required for a "YES" settlement in this specific range[1][2]. Even during record-breaking heatwaves, such as the recent event where Beijing hit 106°F (41.1°C), the market logic suggests that specific temperature bands are tightly clustered around the historical mean rather than volatile outliers[9].

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor daily weather forecasts from AccuWeather and timeanddate, which currently project highs between 82°F and 93°F (28°C–34°C) for June 2026 at the airport station[5]. The primary catalyst to watch is the development of any sudden heatwave systems moving from northern China, as these can rapidly shift daily highs above 35°C. Dependencies include real-time Wunderground data updates, which serve as the official resolution source, and any official meteorological announcements regarding extreme heat warnings from the National Meteorological Centre. A power-user would likely set conditional orders based on the 72-hour forecast window, triggering entries only if the predicted high exceeds 35°C, given the current consensus that such extremes are improbable for this specific date[3][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.