Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

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Market context

Beijing's daily maximum temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport meteorological station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. Early June sits within Beijing's late spring period, when daytime highs typically range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration exercise for temperature-band markets where extreme outcomes carry minimal implied likelihood.

Historical precedent matters here. Beijing's June temperature records show that whilst sustained heat waves do occur, they typically emerge later in the month as the East Asian summer monsoon intensifies. Data from 2015, 2017, and 2022 show that early June maxima rarely exceed 35°C; the 30–33°C band has captured most outcomes in comparable years. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should cross-reference the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlook (typically published in May) against Weather Underground's historical daily records to establish baseline expectations before the settlement window.

The key dependency is the timing of any early-season heat system moving into northern China during late May and early June. The National Meteorological Centre issues 10-day forecasts that update daily; traders monitoring automated feeds should flag any alerts for high-temperature warnings in the Beijing region. Current atmospheric patterns favour near-normal conditions for early June, which aligns with the market's low probability on extreme temperature bands. Resolution hinges entirely on the single highest reading recorded at ZBAA station between 00:00 and 23:59 local time on 4 June.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.