Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, specifically the highest temperature in degrees Fahrenheit across all times of that day. This metric will be resolved using data from Wunderground, which tracks the daily maximum for the station, and the market currently assigns a 0% probability to the "YES" outcome for any specific range, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the offered brackets or that the market is illiquid.

Historical precedents for late June in Dallas frame how to interpret this near-zero probability. Climate records for this period typically show highs near 93°F, with the record high for 26 June reaching 100°F in 2022, while recent Polymarket data for 23 and 26 June 2026 indicates frontrunners in the 92–95°F range[1][2]. A power-user evaluating this tooling programmatically would note that the 0% figure likely reflects a mismatch between the offered ranges and the historical average of 93–94°F, rather than an expectation of freezing conditions, as the hot season in Dallas runs from June to September with average highs above 89°F[8].

Traders monitoring this market should watch the National Weather Service 7-day forecast, which currently projects a high near 98°F for the region, alongside potential precipitation chances that could moderate peak temperatures[6]. The primary dependency is the official Wunderground daily record, which will be the sole settlement source, and any sudden shifts in the forecast for 28 June could alter the implied probability significantly. Recent weather reports for Dallas Love Field confirm variable highs ranging from 75°F to 89°F in the immediate week, with some rain possible, which a conditional order strategy would need to account for when hedging against extreme heat outcomes[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.