Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat and heavy rainfall. A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would first query Wunderground’s historical API to extract daily maxima, filtering for the specific station code ZGGG to ensure data integrity before running conditional order logic.

Historical records indicate Guangzhou’s June highs frequently reach 35°C or more, with the absolute peak recorded at 36.6°C, driven by subtropical high-pressure systems and frequent typhoons [1][2]. Recent data confirms May 2026 was the hottest in history, with temperatures climbing to 36.3°C during continuous sunny spells, suggesting a strong thermal carry-over into June [5]. Climate analysis further shows extreme hot days above 33°C have doubled since the 1960s across East Asia, making a 0% YES probability for a high-temperature range statistically fragile given the warming trend [3].

Traders must monitor daily weather bulletins for typhoon warnings or heavy thunderstorm forecasts, which could suppress temperatures below the target range [1][6]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s final daily report, so any data latency or station-specific anomalies could alter the resolution [9]. With summer arriving earlier in over 80% of studied cities, the catalyst for a high-temperature outcome is the persistence of the subtropical high without significant rain interference [3]. A script monitoring these dependencies would trigger entries only when humidity drops and cloud cover remains minimal, aligning with the historical pattern of June heatwaves.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.