Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure, reported to one decimal place. This is a straightforward physical measurement with no discretionary interpretation—the data either exists in the published record or the market cannot resolve until it does.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster between 28–33°C for daily highs, though extremes have occasionally reached 35°C during early-summer heat waves. The 0% crowd probability reflects that no specific temperature range has yet been selected as the market's resolution bracket—this is a structural artefact rather than a forecast statement. Traders building conditional orders or algorithmic monitors should note that the Observatory publishes daily data with a lag; the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 June, but the actual temperature reading may not be finalised until the following day's data release. Programmatic approaches would need to account for this publication delay and cross-reference the Daily Extract archive directly rather than relying on real-time weather APIs.

Seasonal patterns matter here: mid-June typically sits at the onset of Hong Kong's southwest monsoon season, which can suppress temperatures slightly compared to May peaks. Any tropical system activity in the preceding weeks would be worth monitoring through the Hong Kong Observatory's forecast bulletins, though such events remain inherently unpredictable at a six-month remove. The market's utility lies in its precision—it demands exact settlement against an official, auditable source rather than interpolated estimates.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.