Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 12 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure, reported to one decimal place, which determines which temperature band resolves YES. The Observatory publishes this data after the observation period closes, typically within 24–48 hours, though delays can occur during system maintenance or data verification cycles.

June in Hong Kong sits within the pre-monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 31–33°C, though extremes occasionally reach 35°C or above during heat waves. Historical records show that June temperatures have exceeded 34°C in roughly 15–20% of years over the past two decades, with the highest June daily maximum on record reaching 36.1°C (June 1967). Current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in a below-consensus outcome for whichever temperature band is being tested; this reflects either seasonal norms or specific model forecasts for that date.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts, typically released monthly, and cross-reference them with regional atmospheric patterns—particularly the onset timing of the Southwest Monsoon and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific. The UK Met Office and Japan Meteorological Agency publish extended-range forecasts that can inform positioning weeks ahead. Programmatically, automated feeds from the Observatory's climate data portal allow conditional orders to trigger once the Daily Extract publishes, eliminating manual settlement lag.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.