Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data once finalised. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, meaning traders must account for the lag between local observation and official publication.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28–32°C, with extremes occasionally breaching 34°C during early-season heat waves or tropical systems. Historical daily maxima for mid-June average around 30–31°C; the 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be calibrated to an unusually narrow or high-threshold band. Comparable June dates from the Observatory's climate archive (accessible via their daily extract portal) provide the baseline for evaluating whether a given range is plausible. A trader automating resolution checks would query the Observatory's published dataset directly rather than relying on secondary weather services, since the contract explicitly names that source.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include the onset of the southwest monsoon (typically established by mid-June) and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes 30-day outlooks and issues heat warnings when temperatures are forecast to exceed 33°C; monitoring these advisories programmatically offers early signal of potential extremes. Conditional order logic could be structured around monsoon intensity indices or upper-air temperature anomalies tracked by regional meteorological centres, though the final resolution hinges entirely on the Observatory's recorded observation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.