Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 14 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" figure, measured to one decimal place. This market cannot resolve until that data is finalised and made available through the Observatory's climate information system, creating a hard dependency on publication timing rather than real-time measurement.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster predictably. The 30-year average daily maximum for mid-June sits around 31–32°C, with extremes ranging from 28°C in cooler years to 35°C during heat waves. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting baseline forecasts or treating this as a calibration test. Comparable markets on Hong Kong Observatory data have shown settlement delays of 2–4 weeks post-date, so traders integrating this into conditional order chains should account for that lag.

A programmatic approach would monitor the Observatory's published forecast updates (issued daily at 18:00 HKT) and cross-reference them against the 14-day outlook as the date approaches. The key catalyst is the onset of the southwest monsoon season, which typically brings moisture and occasional cloud cover that suppresses peak temperatures. Traders should watch for tropical cyclone warnings or heat advisories issued in early June 2026, as these would shift probability distributions materially. The Observatory publishes all historical data retroactively, so resolution is deterministic once the Daily Extract is updated.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.