Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event at stake is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine the market resolution, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date once the official "Daily Extract" is finalized.

Historically, late June in Hong Kong consistently delivers extreme heat, with the Observatory’s own records showing a maximum of 34.4°C on 27 June 2024, the highest of that month [10]. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly states that temperatures are expected to be above-normal due to climate warming and current ENSO conditions [2]. Recent news confirms this trend, with Hong Kong recording its hottest day of the year so far at 34.6°C on a Friday in June 2026, accompanied by a hail warning [5]. Given that the crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome is currently 0%, this likely reflects a misunderstanding of the baseline; the historical and forecast data strongly suggest the temperature will fall within the higher ranges, making the current probability appear mispriced to a power-user evaluating the tooling programmatically.

A trader approaching this market programmatically must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" publication schedule, as the market cannot resolve until this data is officially published [1]. Key catalysts include real-time heat warnings, such as the recent alert for extreme heat in the New Territories where temperatures were expected to hit 37°C [4], and the official seasonal forecast updates which confirm above-normal temperatures [2]. The primary dependency is the finalisation of the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" value in the relevant extract, available via the Observatory’s climate data portal [1]. Traders should also watch for sudden weather shifts, like the hail warning issued alongside the 34.6°C record, which can indicate volatile atmospheric conditions affecting the peak temperature [5]. The resolution source is strictly the Observatory’s official data, so any automated strategy must wait for this specific publication to execute conditional orders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.