Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 5?

Market context

On 5 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single data point once the Observatory publishes it in their Daily Extract records, typically available within days of the observation date. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, meaning traders have until the Observatory releases official figures to position themselves.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28°C and 34°C based on thirty-year climate normals, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 36°C during this month. Historical records show June typically sits in the transition between late spring and early summer patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests markets are either awaiting range options to be defined or reflect genuine uncertainty about which specific band will contain the actual reading. Comparable weather markets on established platforms typically see probability distributions sharpen only once historical data becomes available for calibration—traders can cross-reference the Observatory's archived Daily Extracts to build baseline models for early June conditions.

Traders automating this market should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule, which typically releases Daily Extracts within 2–3 days of observation. Programmatic approaches would query the official data feed directly rather than relying on secondary sources, given the one-decimal precision requirement and the need to match the exact resolution methodology. Conditional orders tied to broader Asian weather patterns—particularly monsoon onset timing and any tropical systems—could flag relevant catalysts, though June typically experiences stable conditions before the peak typhoon season.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.