Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's maximum temperature on 7 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though the actual Observatory data may take several hours to finalise after the calendar day ends in Hong Kong (UTC+8).

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong show consistent patterns: the territory typically records daily maxima between 28–32°C during early June, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves or when tropical systems approach. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range of possible outcomes. Comparing to June 2023 and 2024 data from the Observatory would establish baseline expectations; early-season heat waves are rare but not unprecedented, and the South China Sea's warming trends have shifted seasonal norms incrementally over the past decade.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's ten-day forecast updates, which typically refresh daily and flag heat alerts when temperatures are expected to exceed 33°C. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late May and early June can suppress temperatures significantly, so seasonal storm tracking via the Joint Typhoon Warning Center becomes a material input. For programmatic approaches, the Observatory publishes historical Daily Extracts with consistent formatting, allowing conditional orders to be structured around published ranges once the settlement data becomes available post-7 June.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.