Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in Celsius to one decimal place. This figure becomes the resolution source for the market once published in the Observatory's Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes its official reading—typically within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster predictably around 28–32°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 34°C during early summer. Historical data from the Observatory shows that daily maxima in early June average 29–30°C, with the 95th percentile around 32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market's range brackets may be set at thresholds well above typical conditions, or traders are awaiting seasonal forecasts before committing capital. Reviewing the Observatory's climate normals for this period provides the baseline against which any forecast model should be calibrated.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is the Observatory's publication schedule. The Hong Kong Observatory releases daily climate data through its CIS portal, though timing can vary by 2–3 days post-observation. Setting up conditional orders requires monitoring both the Observatory's data feed and any tropical cyclone warnings issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, as these significantly alter temperature trajectories in June. A bot tracking the Observatory's historical publication lag and cross-referencing seasonal monsoon patterns would flag when official data becomes available for settlement execution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.