Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

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Market context

On 9 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official reading, with settlement dependent on the Observatory publishing data in its Daily Extract climate records. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting historical baseline data or treating this as a calibration exercise for a future date when seasonal patterns become clearer.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28–32°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 34°C or falling below 26°C during this month. The Observatory's forty-year climate normals show June as the onset of the southwest monsoon season, when humidity rises sharply but extreme heat remains uncommon before July. Comparable June days from recent years—such as June 2023 and June 2024—saw highs in the 29–31°C range, providing a reference frame for evaluating any market bands offered. Traders building algorithmic feeds should note that the Observatory updates its Daily Extract records with a lag; settlement cannot occur until official data appears in the climate database.

For programmatic monitoring, the Observatory publishes preliminary readings within hours of observation but finalises Daily Extract entries within days. Traders integrating conditional orders or copy-trading bots should flag the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule rather than real-time weather APIs, since this market explicitly references the Observatory's archived climate data as the sole resolution source. Regional weather patterns—monsoon intensity, tropical cyclone activity—can shift June temperatures by 2–3°C, making late-May meteorological forecasts a useful leading indicator for position sizing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.