Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 1 July 2026, with settlement dependent on Wunderground’s daily data. Current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, yet market frontrunners suggest 32°C at 35% and 31°C at 30%, indicating traders expect temperatures within the typical July range rather than extremes [1]. Historical averages confirm daytime highs in Manila during July usually reach 31°C, with very high heat and humidity, rarely exceeding 33°C or dropping below 26°C [2][3]. The wet season, spanning June to October, brings frequent showers that moderate peak temperatures, making 35°C or higher highly improbable [3][4].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s extended weather outlook for the Philippines, which forecasts a 60% chance of rain on 1 July with highs of 31°C, and a 40% chance on 2 July with highs of 32°C [8]. Recent climate data notes that the warmest day in July 2026 for the Philippines occurred on 2 July at 30°C, reinforcing that extreme heat is unlikely in early July [7]. Programmatically, this market would be approached by querying Wunderground’s historical API for RPLL (Ninoy Aquino) daily records, filtering for 1 July 2026, and cross-referencing with PAGASA’s real-time forecasts to validate temperature thresholds. Conditional orders could be triggered if rain probability drops below 30% or if humidity indices spike, as these dependencies directly influence peak temperature outcomes [3][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.