Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak air temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. This is not a speculative forecast but a factual observation of a specific meteorological condition at a fixed location and time, with settlement occurring once the official daily high is published.

Historical June weather in Manila shows daily highs typically ranging from 84°F to 95°F (29°C to 35°C), rarely dipping below 29°C or exceeding 35°C[2]. Recent data confirms a peak of 98.6°F (37°C) on 17 June 2026, indicating that temperatures above 30°C are common in this period[4]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for “YES” (likely meaning a temperature below a certain threshold) contradicts this baseline, as 29°C and 30°C are the leading outcomes in the market, with 29°C at 62% and 30°C at 30%[1]. Programmatic traders should model this using historical averages and recent anomalies, treating the 0% signal as a potential mispricing rather than a reliable indicator.

Traders must monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) daily bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the airport station, as these are the definitive resolution sources. No major weather announcements are currently scheduled, but sudden shifts in cloud cover or monsoon activity could alter the peak temperature. The market’s dependency on a single data feed means any delay or error in Wunderground’s reporting could impact settlement timing, so automated bots should include fallback checks against PAGASA’s public archives. Recent news from ABS-CBN confirms Metro Manila’s record high of 38.8°C in April 2024, reinforcing that extreme heat is possible even outside the typical June range[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket App UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.