Highest temperature in Moscow on May 29?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 29 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. NOAA's automated weather station logs hourly readings throughout the day, and the settlement hinges on the single highest "Temp" value appearing in their public time-series database. The resolution window closes at midday UTC on 29 May, though the actual data point may not populate until the following day's first observation is recorded, creating a brief lag between event occurrence and market closure.

Moscow's late May temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, though extremes have pushed toward 30°C during anomalously warm springs. Historical May 29 data from Vnukovo shows considerable year-to-year variation; the station recorded 28.8°C on this date in 2014 and 16.1°C in 2017. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating all outcomes as equiprobable. Programmatic traders monitoring this would benefit from establishing baseline expectations using NOAA's historical archive and cross-referencing against European weather forecasting models, which typically converge 7–10 days ahead.

The key catalyst is the seasonal weather pattern developing across European Russia in late May 2026. Traders should track atmospheric pressure systems and jet-stream positioning from mid-May onwards; Roshydromet (Russia's meteorological service) publishes extended forecasts that often align with NOAA's eventual readings. Any significant high-pressure system stalling over western Russia would shift probability mass toward higher temperature ranges. The market's reliance on a single NOAA station means localised conditions at Vnukovo—proximity to urban heat effects and runway orientation—matter more than broader Moscow-region temperatures.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.