Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record a daily high temperature on 12 June 2026, and this market resolves to whichever temperature band captures that reading in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather database for the KLGA station, accessed via their daily archive interface. Traders need to verify the exact timestamp window: the market closes at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date, but Wunderground's daily high reflects the full calendar day in local time (Eastern Time), creating a potential timing mismatch for automated resolution checks.

June temperatures at LaGuardia typically range from 75°F to 85°F based on thirty-year normals, though the airport's urban heat island effect and proximity to tarmac can push readings 2–4 degrees higher than surrounding areas. Historical June extremes at the station have reached into the low 90s during heat waves, providing context for the wider temperature bands this market likely offers. Traders building conditional order logic should account for the fact that Wunderground occasionally revises historical data within 48 hours of publication, particularly for stations with automated reporting systems.

The National Weather Service Northeast Regional Office publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead; checking their New York City forecast page in early June will signal whether anomalous heat is developing. Seasonal patterns favour near-normal or slightly above-normal temperatures for mid-June in the Northeast, though Atlantic tropical systems can introduce volatility. Programmatic traders should set alerts on Wunderground's KLGA page beginning 11 June, as the final reading becomes locked once the day closes in Eastern Time.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.