Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, with National Weather Service models forecasting a high near 82–85°F. This specific day sits within a June 2026 pattern where daily highs in the area range from 77° to 92°, while the climatological normal for maximum temperature on this date is 84°F[3]. Historical data from 21 June 2026 shows a high of 79°F against an average of 82.9°F, suggesting the market’s current 0% probability for the highest temperature is likely a mispricing if the frontrunner outcome of 82–83°F holds at 99% confidence[1][7].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor the Wunderground resolution feed for the LaGuardia station, watching for any sudden shifts in the 82–83°F versus 84–85°F split as the settlement window closes. The primary catalyst is the daily weather update schedule, which typically releases overnight data confirming the peak temperature; recent forecasts indicate overnight lows between 66° and 73°, a dependency that directly influences the daytime high[5]. Traders should verify the specific time of the peak reading against the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline, as any delay in the data feed from Wunderground could alter the final resolution range[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.