Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime temperature recorded at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Historical patterns for late June in New York City show typical highs between 77°F and 92°F, with the average high around 84°F[5]. Recent comparable markets, such as the 24 June 2026 event, assigned 100% probability to the 82–83°F range, reflecting consistent seasonal expectations[2]. The current 0% YES probability for lower ranges aligns with these precedents, suggesting the market views cooler outcomes as highly improbable given the region’s summery trajectory.

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports and Wunderground’s real-time updates for LaGuardia, as these are the official resolution sources[4][8]. Key catalysts include the timing of cold fronts and thunderstorm activity, which recently disrupted the Northeast after temperatures soared into the low 90s[3]. A cold front was forecast to bring scattered storms and cooler air by Saturday night, potentially moderating Sunday’s warmth, though residual heat may linger[3]. For conditional order strategies, dependencies on humidity levels and wind patterns are critical, as high humidity can elevate perceived temperatures even if actual highs dip slightly. Recent forecasts indicated peak temperatures on Saturday, with highs up to 15 degrees above seasonal average, reinforcing the likelihood of the 82–83°F range[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.