Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record a daily high temperature on 7 June 2026, with the actual reading depending on seasonal weather patterns, atmospheric conditions, and any anomalous systems moving through the New York region that day. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains the highest reading captured at the station, measured in Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground's historical database.

New York's early June climate typically produces highs between 75–85°F, with occasional excursions into the low 90s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available in this market's resolution options, or the upper-range brackets carry prohibitively low odds. Historical June data from LaGuardia shows that temperatures above 90°F occur roughly 10–15% of the time during this month; temperatures exceeding 95°F are considerably rarer. Comparing to June 2024 and 2025 patterns provides a baseline for seasonal volatility, though year-to-year variation remains substantial.

Traders monitoring this market should track the National Weather Service's extended forecast as June 7 approaches, particularly any alerts regarding high-pressure systems or heat domes that could push temperatures into unusual ranges. Programmatic approaches would benefit from integrating NWS API feeds and historical anomaly detection to flag when conditions diverge from the 30-year normal. Settlement occurs at noon UTC on the resolution date, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once morning forecasts confirm the likely range. Weather Underground's API access allows automated data retrieval once the market closes, streamlining verification against the official reading.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.