Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

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Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, requiring traders to verify the data source independently before position entry. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity across all outcomes.

June temperatures at Le Bourget typically range between 18–25°C, with occasional peaks above 26°C during heat waves. Historical records show that early June rarely produces the extreme heat seen in July or August; the 2003 European heat wave peaked later in the summer, whilst more recent June anomalies (2022, 2023) saw temperatures reach 28–30°C on isolated days. Traders should cross-reference Météo-France's archived data for Le Bourget to establish baseline expectations and identify which temperature bands have historically been most common for this calendar date.

The primary catalyst remains the Atlantic weather pattern in late May and early June 2026. Traders monitoring seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) or Météo-France's extended outlook will gain early signals about high-pressure systems or frontal activity. For programmatic approaches, integrating a weather API alongside conditional order logic allows automatic position adjustments if forecast confidence shifts materially. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, creating a narrow window for last-minute adjustments based on morning observations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.