Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the Incheon International Airport Station will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a metric that determines the resolution of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome appears inconsistent with historical data, as Seoul’s July climate routinely produces temperatures between 29°C and 35°C. For instance, average daily highs in July range from 81°F to 85°F (27°C to 29°C), rarely dipping below 74°F or exceeding 91°F (33°C) [4]. More dramatically, Seoul reached 37.8°C on 8 July 2023, the highest early-July temperature in 117 years of records [6][9]. Even in August 2025, South Korea experienced its second-hottest July since 1973, with an average temperature of 27.1°C [5]. These cases suggest that a 0% probability for all outcomes is statistically anomalous and likely reflects a market data error rather than genuine climatic uncertainty.

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and cross-reference with satellite data for cloud cover and humidity, which directly influence peak temperatures. Key catalysts include the Korean Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave forecasts and any official announcements regarding tropical night streaks, which have recently broken century-old records with overnight temperatures above 25°C for 22 consecutive days [8]. Traders should also track the East Asian monsoon schedule, as shifts in moisture flow can abruptly alter temperature trajectories. Recent news from Anadolu Ajansı confirms that Seoul’s 37.7°C reading in early July 2023 was a historic outlier, underscoring the volatility of summer heat in the region [9]. Programmatically, one would set conditional orders to trigger when Wunderground data exceeds 30°C, aligning with the market’s frontrunner outcome of 30°C at 58% probability [1]. This approach leverages historical volatility and real-time dependencies to exploit the market’s apparent mispricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket App UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.