Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 1 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport's official weather station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. Early June in Seoul typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options or treating this as a calibration test for weather-data integration workflows.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. The past decade's early-June highs have ranged from 22°C in cooler years to 31°C during anomalous warm spells, with 2018 recording 30°C on 1 June specifically. This spread means any single-day forecast carries genuine uncertainty; traders building automated resolution pipelines should account for Wunderground's data lag (typically 24–48 hours post-settlement window) and verify station-specific reporting against alternative sources like Korea Meteorological Administration records.

Catalysts affecting June 2026 temperatures include the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system and any early monsoon activity. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through spring 2026 would shift baseline expectations, though such signals remain months away from confirmation. Traders integrating this market into conditional-order strategies should monitor seasonal forecasts from late April onwards; any significant deviation from the 26–28°C normal range would warrant position reassessment before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.