Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the settlement determined by the highest temperature recorded across all hours that day. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that peak reading in Celsius, sourced directly from Weather Underground's historical data for the station.

Mid-June in Seoul typically sits within the early monsoon season, with average highs around 26–28°C, though variability is substantial depending on whether the rainy season has commenced. Historical data from prior years shows June 13th temperatures have ranged from lows in the low 20s to highs exceeding 30°C when high-pressure systems dominate. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the market mechanics or treating this as a genuine weather forecast challenge rather than a settled expectation. Programmatic traders would benefit from integrating seasonal weather models and comparing Incheon's microclimate against Seoul proper, as the airport station sits in a coastal zone with moderating maritime influence.

Traders monitoring this market should track Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific will influence broader East Asian pressure patterns by mid-2026, whilst any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific could shift Seoul's weather significantly. Real-time integration with automated weather APIs would allow conditional orders to adjust positions as June approaches and forecast confidence increases.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.