Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 14 June 2026 will be measured via the official Incheon International Airport weather station, with the day's peak temperature determining which range the market resolves to. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, requiring traders to source historical data from Weather Underground before that deadline. For programmatic approaches, the Weather Underground API permits automated queries of historical temperature records once the date has passed, enabling conditional order execution based on the final reading.

Mid-June in Seoul typically sits within the early monsoon season, with average highs around 26–28°C and occasional heat waves pushing into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity drawing traders to this particular market. Historical June data from Incheon shows variability: 2023 peaked at 29.4°C on 14 June, whilst 2022 reached 31.1°C the same date. This range—spanning roughly 27–32°C—frames the realistic distribution for next year's settlement.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in early June 2026, which typically indicate whether monsoon onset or high-pressure systems will dominate that week. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if active, influence regional temperature anomalies. The critical dependency is ensuring Weather Underground's Incheon station data remains accessible and uninterrupted through the settlement window; any station outages would require alternative official sources, potentially delaying resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.