Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this prediction market. Historical data for Seoul in June shows typical daytime highs between 19°C and 28°C, with the average warmest day reaching 28.06°C and the highest maximum recorded in 2026 so far hitting 34.0°C on 19 June[1][6][10]. Late June often feels noticeably hotter and more humid than early June, with humidity frequently exceeding 80% and real-feel temperatures potentially reaching 35°C or higher[2][5]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific high temperature range is 0% YES, traders should treat this as a signal that the market expects temperatures to remain within the standard early-summer band rather than spiking into extreme heat, though the rising humidity trend toward the monsoon season (late June to mid-July) introduces volatility[1][7].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor real-time feeds from Wunderground for the Incheon station, setting conditional orders to trigger if temperatures breach the 30°C threshold, which remains rare but possible in late June[1]. Key catalysts include the official start of Korea’s monsoon season, which typically begins in late June and could suppress peak temperatures through increased cloud cover and rainfall[1][7]. Traders should also watch for any sudden heatwave announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration, as these can rapidly shift probability distributions if sustained high-pressure systems develop[4]. Recent climate monitors confirm that while 34.0°C was recorded earlier in the month, such extremes are outliers, and the market’s 0% probability likely reflects confidence in a return to the 25–28°C range as the rainy season intensifies[5][10]. Programmatic bots should be configured to adjust positions dynamically based on hourly humidity and precipitation forecasts, as these factors directly influence the likelihood of extreme heat on 25 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.