Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date falling just as South Korea transitions into its monsoon season. Historical data for late June in Seoul shows typical daytime highs ranging between 19°C and 28°C, with humidity increasing significantly toward the month’s end[1][2]. The average warmest day in June reaches approximately 28°C, while extreme heat spikes above 30°C are rare before the peak summer months[9]. Given that the crowd-implied probability for a higher temperature range sits at 0%, this aligns with the climatic norm that late June rarely produces record-breaking heat in the region, as the incoming rain clouds and monsoon onset usually suppress maximum temperatures[1][4].

A power-user approaching this market programmatically would monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s hourly temperature logs for Incheon, specifically looking for deviations from the 18°C–29°C baseline[6][7]. The primary catalyst to watch is the official start of the monsoon, which typically spans late June to mid-July and brings heavy rainfall that cools daytime highs[4]. Traders should also track any sudden shifts in regional wind patterns or unseasonal clear-sky events that could temporarily elevate temperatures, though such occurrences are statistically uncommon in this window[2]. Recent travel advisories emphasise packing waterproof gear due to the high likelihood of afternoon showers, further reinforcing the expectation that temperatures will remain moderate rather than extreme[2]. No recent news source indicates an anomalous heatwave forecast for Seoul on this specific date, supporting the current market consensus.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket App UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.