Highest temperature in Seoul on June 5?

Market context

Seoul's weather on 5 June 2026 will determine the settlement value, with the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport serving as the reference point. The market resolves based on Wunderground historical data, requiring traders to verify temperature readings through the platform's interface and confirm Celsius settings via the gear icon. For programmatic approaches, the settlement dependency is straightforward: a single daily maximum value from a specified weather station, making this suitable for conditional order logic tied to automated data feeds from Wunderground's historical records.

June temperatures in Seoul typically range between 20–28°C, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C. Historical data from prior years shows early June generally sits at the cooler end of summer, with significant year-to-year variation. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient trader participation; comparing this against Incheon's climatological June patterns would reveal whether the market has priced in realistic seasonal baselines or reflects thin liquidity.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in late May 2026, particularly any alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding high-pressure systems or heat waves. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 could influence June temperatures materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 5 June, meaning traders have no post-event adjustment period; data must be verified immediately upon Wunderground's publication of that day's historical record.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.