Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Market context

On 7 June 2026, Seoul will experience early summer conditions, and this market tracks the single highest temperature reading recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station throughout that calendar day. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data archived by Wunderground, requiring traders to verify the specific measurement methodology—Incheon Airport uses standardised meteorological instruments positioned at consistent heights, making the data reproducible and auditable across multiple queries.

Seoul's June temperatures typically range between 20–28°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 30°C during early summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests either market participants expect unusually cool conditions or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to attract temperature forecasters. Historical June records at Incheon show variability: some years see highs near 25°C whilst others breach 32°C depending on monsoon timing and high-pressure systems moving northward from the Pacific. Traders building algorithmic approaches should cross-reference Korea Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts released in May, which typically indicate whether June will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal.

Catalysts to monitor include late-May weather pattern announcements from the KMA and real-time atmospheric pressure data from early June. The East Asian monsoon onset—typically occurring between late May and mid-June—directly influences Seoul's temperature trajectory; early monsoon arrival suppresses highs, whilst delayed onset allows sustained warming. Programmatic traders can automate daily checks against Wunderground's historical archive after 12:00 UTC on settlement day, though manual verification remains prudent given the specificity of station-level measurement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.