Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 30 May 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Incheon International Airport Station. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which records hourly observations and derives daily highs from that continuous feed. For programmatic traders, the critical dependency is Wunderground's data refresh cycle and any potential gaps in the Incheon station's sensor network, which occasionally occurs during maintenance windows or severe weather events.

Historical May temperatures in Seoul cluster around 24–28°C for daily highs, with occasional outliers reaching 30°C during early heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing. Comparable late-May markets from previous years show that late spring weather in the region remains variable; traders should cross-reference Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts (issued 10 days prior) against Wunderground's own forecast model to identify consensus breakpoints.

A trader automating this market would need to establish a data pipeline that monitors both Wunderground's historical records and the KMA's extended outlook, triggering conditional orders around temperature thresholds typically 2–3°C apart. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 30 May, creating a hard cutoff; any data delays from Wunderground beyond that timestamp would require manual resolution review. Seasonal patterns favour ranges between 25–29°C, though the 0% probability on the current option suggests the market may be pricing an outcome outside conventional May expectations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.