Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1?

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Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 1 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground's historical data archive. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full 24-hour period ending at midnight Shanghai time (UTC+8). This is a straightforward instrumental market: the highest temperature reading for that calendar day determines which range bracket resolves YES.

June in Shanghai sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with historical maxima typically ranging between 28–32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range. Reviewing Wunderground's five-year archive for 1 June shows variation: 2023 peaked at 31°C, 2022 at 29°C, and 2021 at 30°C. This historical clustering around 29–31°C provides the empirical anchor for calibrating position sizing across brackets.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is Wunderground's data refresh cycle and any station maintenance windows. Shanghai experiences occasional typhoon-adjacent moisture surges in early June, though direct storm impact on 1 June specifically is rare. Temperature forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts become actionable roughly 10 days prior. Traders building conditional orders should flag any alerts from Shanghai's meteorological bureau regarding unusual atmospheric patterns; the market's current probability distribution suggests significant uncertainty remains unpriced across the mid-range brackets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.