Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data via Wunderground. June typically sits within Shanghai's early summer window, when daytime highs range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement mechanism relies on a single authoritative source—the airport station's recorded peak for that calendar day—making this a binary-outcome event once the date passes.

Historical June temperatures in Shanghai show clustering around 30°C as a median, with roughly 15–20% of days exceeding 34°C during the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range of outcomes. A programmatic approach would involve anchoring to the past five years of Pudong station data (accessible via Wunderground's historical API) to calibrate position sizing across temperature brackets, then monitoring early-June 2026 forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration as the settlement window approaches.

Traders should track seasonal patterns and any anomalies signalled by El Niño or La Niña conditions in late 2025 and early 2026, which influence East Asian summer temperatures. Conditional orders tied to meteorological forecasts released in early June would allow automated position adjustments without manual intervention. The Wunderground data feed updates daily, so backtesting against prior years' June records provides a baseline for expected volatility across temperature bands.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.