Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 4 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. Early June sits within Shanghai's late spring period, typically characterised by warming trends ahead of the summer monsoon season. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range recorded at the official station.

Historical June temperatures in Shanghai cluster around 28–32°C for daily highs, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range of possible outcomes. Comparable markets on Chinese airport stations show that seasonal patterns dominate short-term forecasts; anomalies typically require documented weather systems (tropical cyclones, blocking high-pressure systems) rather than random variance. Reviewing five-year June records for Pudong reveals that sub-25°C highs occur in fewer than 5% of cases, whilst readings above 35°C appear in roughly 10–15% of June days.

Traders implementing automated monitoring should integrate Weather Underground's API or scheduled scraping routines to capture real-time station data as the date approaches. The China Meteorological Administration issues 10-day forecasts every three days; these updates typically shift market probabilities when they signal unusual patterns. Late May 2026 weather models will provide the first reliable signal; tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during May–June can suppress temperatures significantly. Setting conditional orders keyed to CMA forecast releases or specific temperature thresholds would allow systematic position management without manual intervention.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.