Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 8 June 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit positions before the full diurnal cycle completes. Haneda's location in Tokyo Bay creates a maritime microclimate that moderates extremes compared to inland stations; June temperatures typically range between 24–32°C, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-30s.

Historical June data from Haneda shows the median high sits around 27–28°C, with the 90th percentile near 31°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range. Traders integrating this market into algorithmic workflows should note that Wunderground's historical records update with a lag; programmatic resolution verification requires cross-referencing against Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) official data, which publishes daily summaries with 24-hour delay. The settlement source explicitly requires toggling Celsius via the platform's settings interface—a manual step that introduces friction for automated systems.

Early June weather patterns across East Asia depend on the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical disturbances tracking northward. The Japan Meteorological Agency issues seasonal forecasts in May; traders should monitor their June outlooks for anomaly signals. Recent years have seen increased June heat in Tokyo linked to delayed rainy season onset, though 2025 data remains the most recent comparable reference point. Conditional orders tied to JMA temperature advisories or real-time Haneda readings offer a practical hedge against settlement-day surprises.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.