Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on. This zero probability is stark when viewed against historical data: June 25th has previously seen record highs, including a scorching 35.8°C in 2016, which was the hottest temperature recorded in the city since July 2016 [3][8]. More recently, June 25th was Toronto-Pearson’s highest low temperature recorded on that date since 1938, reaching 22.9°C [9]. These comparable cases indicate that while extreme heat is possible, the current market pricing may be misaligned with the station’s historical volatility for this specific date.

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor immediate weather dependencies, particularly the risk of thundery showers and a gentle breeze forecast for today, which could suppress peak temperatures [2]. The primary catalyst to watch is the Environment Canada heat warning protocol, which has previously triggered extreme heat events like the 35.8°C record [3]. A power-user would script alerts for Wunderground’s daily updates, specifically tracking the highest temperature for all times on 25 June, as this is the definitive resolution source [1]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 suggest daily highs ranging from 68°F to 83°F (approximately 20°C to 28°C), providing a baseline for conditional order placement [7]. Any sudden shift in humidity or pressure, currently falling at 998mb, could act as a precursor to temperature spikes or drops that would invalidate the current 0% pricing [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.